THE risk of a second peak of coronavirus infections largely depends on how well people follow social distancing guidelines in the weeks and months ahead, senior health figures have said.

NHS Forth Valley officials have warned that too many people flouting those guidelines could causing a devastating spike in Covid-19 infections in the region.

In recent weeks, the number of cases has fallen but there could be fluctuations as efforts are made to transition from lockdown to a more normal way of life.

Dr Andrew Murray, medical director, and Dr Henry Prempeh, public health consultant, both agreed that sticking strictly to the guidelines set by the Scottish Government going forward will be vital.

Dr Murray highlighted First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's recent suggestion that too many people were breaking the rules to serve as a reminder that things are still far from business as usual

"It depends really on the public's behaviour," he said. "With the r number being under one, any easing of lockdown and increase in social contact could have that second wave.

"We're hearing a really clear message from the first minister that the public have probably pushed things too far.

"You don't start doing everything normally again."

Dr Prempeh agreed, and referring to the critical r number – representing the average number of people an individual can expect to infect – he said: "Right now it's less than one but over 0.7; if it starts drifting over one we have a problem.

"The issue is that it's dependent on the public's behaviour.

"If people start acting like things are normal then we have a problem, because things are not normal.

"We are far from normal, and if things return to normal then the r [will rise]."

And Dr Prempeh claimed that the risk of a second spike in Covid-19 infections may be higher in winter than at any other time of year.

He said: "As things get colder, people get closer together and the humidity goes up.

"The likelihood of the virus surviving for longer periods on hard surfaces will increase, and the possibility of individuals becoming infected will increase."

But he said that no matter what time of year it is, the best way to prevent a second wave of infections is to follow current public health guidance from the Scottish Government.

From last month, Scotland moved into phase one of the Scottish Government's routemap out of lockdown.

Importantly, maintaining the 2m distance from others, frequent handwashing, following cough etiquette and using face coverings in public spaces are still advised.

But the move to phase one does allow for more outdoor activities.

For example, people can meet up with one other household outdoors, in small numbers – with a maximum of eight people – while maintaining social distancing.

And non-essential outdoor workplaces with physical distancing can resume – once relevant guidance has been agreed.

Announcing the changes on May 28, the first minister expressed her fears over how people may change their behaviours.

She said: "I don't mind admitting to you that as we take these first steps, I do feel a bit nervous.

"I worry that the limited changes we are making to these rules, the very careful changes, might lead to much greater change in reality.

"And so I really need your help to make sure that is not the case.

"Please respect the parameters we are setting out.

"Be respectful of each other's space, and make sure things still feel different to normal, because they should still feel different to normal.

"Above all, remember that each individual decision we will take, will affect the safety and the wellbeing of everyone."

To find out more information about what is and is not allowed during phase one, click here