The outcome of this year’s Scottish Parliament election will soon be known, with the next constituency MSP for Clackmannanshire and Dunblane expected to be announced at around 4pm.
As usual, experts have been trying to predict the result during the period leading up to the vote.
All major polls suggest that incumbent Keith Brown of the SNP is likely to retain his seat, with recent studies from YouGov, More in Common, and Survation showing his party as the favourite to take first place in the area.
They anticipate a share of 39, 34, and 48 percent respectively.
Last time round in 2021, he received 16,504 votes, which made up 47.2 percent of all that were cast.
That was almost double the number that second-placed Alexander Stewart of the Conservatives got. The pair are the only candidates who stood in the race back then to do so again this year.
If Survation’s projection is accurate, he will again finish one spot behind Brown with 16.5 percent. Meanwhile More in Common has Reform’s Mike Collier as runner up on 20 percent, whilst YouGov shows a stalemate between Collier and Suzanne Grahame of the Labour Party.
Polling is not an exact science, and even less so at a national level. All three surveys mentioned in this article anticipate that John Swinney’s SNP will remain the largest group at Holyrood but fall short of an overall majority.
How accurate they turn out to be remains to be seen, although not for long. Keep up to date with today’s count by following our live blog, and keep an eye on the Advertiser’s Facebook page for break-out news.
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